The latest Bitcoin (BTC) price rebound above $78,000 has sparked renewed optimism across the market, as. However, not all market watchers are convinced that the momentum will last. Crypto analyst Marmot is warning that the recent price surge may be masking deeper weakness underneath, urging investors and traders not to trust it. As across the market, Marmot believes traders may overlook signals that often precede sharp reversals and major shifts in market direction. 

Why Bitcoin’s Rally Above $78,000 Could Be A Trap

Marmot has that Bitcoin’s recent price rally could be rather than a sustained breakout. According to him, the rebound resembles a classic distribution pattern designed to shake out retail traders before a sharp decline occurs. 

In his post on X, the analyst cautioned investors and traders against trusting, as market participants increasingly call for a price of $100,000 even as the cryptocurrency may still be in. He argued that Bitcoin’s real market move remains undetected and unknown to virtually 99% of traders despite growing bullish sentiment. 

Supporting his bearish forecast, Marmot highlighted two identical structures on a Bitcoin price chart, showing that the cryptocurrency had experienced a massive price surge between December 2025 and January 2026 after. At the time, BTC formed a triangle wedge pattern, where prices climbed to a range between $96,000 and $100,000 before a massive price crash to below $65,000 in February 2026.

Marmot’s chart shows that the same pattern is now unfolding in real time. Bitcoin is currently grinding inside a consolidation triangle wedge between roughly $72,000 and $80,000 following its recent price spike. If historical patterns repeat, the analyst, this time down to the $50,000 range. This would represent a more than 33.5% crash from levels above $75,200, at the time of writing. 

ETF Flows And Liquidity Add Pressure To BTC

In his post, Marmot also pointed to several factors that continue to add more pressure on Bitcoin’s price and outlook. He pointed to, noting that they had recently recorded their largest outflows in months. He stated that approximately $300 million was withdrawn in a single day, with outflows also seen in Fidelity’s ETF. 

Moreover, while retail investors continue buying the dip, Marmot argued that. Rather than fully exiting the market, the analyst said that large players are rotating capital elsewhere, as part of a broader repositioning. 

Marmot also claimed that liquidity walls imposed by investment firms such as BlackRock are helping to hold prices up artificially. He noted that the reason is likely to create exit liquidity for smart money while demand from smaller traders remains active. 

While Marmot has acknowledged that may not happen immediately, he warned that once liquidity leaves the market, the cryptocurrency’s downside move could be fast and severe. As a result, he has urged traders not to buy near the top while funds are still rebalancing.