XRP has reached a , and the next wave of price action is expected to clarify whether the market is setting up for recovery or preparing for another structural breakdown. Recent movement confirms that a key support has done its job, but the upside path comes with strict conditions that will determine whether this or merely a pause before deeper downside.

XRP Bounce Is Real, But It’s Still A Test Move

Yesterday, renowned crypto analyst CasiTrades took to X, out that XRP’s weekend decline stopped exactly at the macro 0.5 retracement near $2.03, a level that now acts as . The reaction to this zone was immediate, validating it as active demand rather than coincidental price alignment. Momentum indicators also at this low, reinforcing the view that downside pressure is weakening in the short term.

From a wave-structure standpoint, CasiTrades interprets this move as the early stage of a subwave 2 bounce. The chart attached suggests the price could rotate higher toward the $2.24–$2.26 range, an area defined by overlapping Fibonacci retracements and prior resistance. would complete the expected corrective move, but CasiTrades emphasizes that such a rally still falls within a broader pullback rather than confirming bullish continuation.

This distinction is critical as corrective rallies often appear constructive before failing. If XRP’s advance remains overlapping and lacks impulsive strength, it would support the case for a rejection at resistance and .

The Catch That Decides The Bigger Picture

The key level that changes everything, according to CasiTrades, is $2.41. A decisive break above this level, followed by as support, would invalidate the downside scenario entirely. would signal that the bounce is no longer corrective and that XRP is transitioning into a stronger impulsive phase.

However, , including a potential double-top, would still align with a wave-2 corrective structure. In that case, XRP would likely roll into a subwave 3 decline. While smaller subwaves may not unfold perfectly, CasiTrades stresses that the larger-degree target remains unchanged, with $1.65 as the dominant downside objective.

Risk management remains central to this setup. CasiTrades identifies $2.03 as the invalidation point for the bounce thesis, making it the logical level for protective stops. As long as this support holds, the market is in observation mode.

Ultimately, the next XRP wave points toward where price is headed next, but only if traders respect the condition attached. As , the internal structure of the move will reveal whether this is a temporary reset or the start of something materially stronger.