Bitcoin and crypto have already , with price surging past $100,000 and extending to a peak of $126,198 in 2025. However, the pullback that followed has since to around $78,267. Yet, rather than signaling the end of the cycle, one expert argues that this downtrend is part of a broader structure that points to a return above $100,000.

Bitcoin’s $100,000 Crypto Cycle

Crypto expert @TheRealPlanC recently in a tweet that the rally which carried Bitcoin beyond $100,000 did not occur under favorable economic conditions. Instead, he explained that it developed during a contractionary business cycle, a period that has historically constrained risk assets.

Even within that restrictive environment, Bitcoin advanced into six-figure territory, suggesting that underlying demand remained intact. As the expert notes, that strength was met with sustained selling. Long-term holders reduced exposure as prices climbed beyond $100,000, while traders guided by exited positions toward the latter part of 2025.

was intense but not driven by market structure alone. A combination of disruptions, including an exchange-related incident, institutional trading concerns, and heightened global uncertainty, added further strain. Despite these pressures, Bitcoin’s drawdown settled at roughly 52% from peak to trough, a level that, in the analyst’s view, rather than a collapse.

This sequence, as @TheRealPlanC frames it, recasts . Instead of marking the end of the cycle, it begins to resemble the first peak in a market that has yet to fully play out.

When Bitcoin Could Climb Back Above $100,000

With Bitcoin now trading well below its previous high, the focus shifts to timing its . The Crypto expert links this expectation to a shift in the broader economic backdrop. He points to recent data showing the business cycle moving above the neutral threshold for three consecutive months, a development that signals a transition toward expansion. This shift is significant because it contrasts with the restrictive conditions that defined the earlier rally, opening the door for renewed upside.

He also highlights changing demand dynamics. Large-scale accumulation, led by , is reportedly absorbing between 10,000 and 30,000 Bitcoin each week. In the analyst’s view, this steady demand adds a structural layer of support as the market stabilizes.

Within this context, @TheRealPlanC interprets the decline from $126,198 to current levels near $78,267 as a mid-cycle reset rather than a prolonged downturn. Based on this framework, the analyst expects as conditions improve. He ultimately places the next major peak in 2027, suggesting that a move back above six figures could occur before that point as momentum gradually rebuilds. This perspective positions the current phase as part of an extended cycle, where reclaiming $100,000 signals continuation rather than completion.