Prediction market traders on Polymarket put the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at 55% — a jump of nine percentage points in a single day — after two US senators released final language settling one of the bill’s most contested disputes.

Banks Got Restrictions, Crypto Got Rewards

The new text, published Friday by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks, draws on stablecoin yields. No crypto firm may pay customers any form of interest simply for holding stablecoins — a practice that critics argued mimicked bank deposits and put traditional lenders at a disadvantage.

But firms are allowed to offer rewards tied to what the bill calls “bona fide activities,” meaning actual use of crypto platforms or networks.

Coinbase chief legal officer Faryar Shirzad called the outcome . “In the end, the banks were able to get more restrictions on rewards, but we protected what matters,” Shirzad said, referring to Americans’ ability to earn rewards through real crypto usage.

The final rewards text in the CLARITY Act is now public.

We’ve been clear throughout this process: much of this debate was based on imagined risks, not real evidence, nor was it based on a real understanding of how crypto actually works.

Nevertheless, the crypto industry showed…

— Faryar Shirzad (@faryarshirzad)

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong was blunter. His response to the news: “Mark it up” — a direct call for the Senate Banking Committee to

Not everyone was satisfied. Helius Labs CEO Mert Mumtaz offered a sharper take, saying the result simply meant Americans could not earn risk-free yield on their dollars without going through a bank.

Senate Markup Could Come As Early As May 11

Galaxy Digital head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said the release of the signals that the Senate Banking Committee could schedule a markup as soon as the week of May 11.

That would mark a significant acceleration for legislation that had stalled for months, partly because the stablecoin yield question had no agreed answer.

CLARITY ACT — text of tillis (R) / alsobrooks (D) compromise on stablecoin yield is out now

they previously said they had “agreement in principle”

release of text suggests that senate banking will schedule markup imminently, as soon as week of may 11

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins)

Thorn also flagged a likely complication. He expects banks to step up their opposition once the markup is on the calendar, a warning that the compromise text may not be the end of the fight — just the start of a new one.

The broader timeline had already been set by several senators. Bernie Moreno said he expects the bill to get done by the end of May. Senator Cynthia Lummis put it more starkly in April: “It’s now or never.”

A Long-Running Dispute Pushed To The Side

The stablecoin yield debate had been one of the main obstacles holding up the CLARITY Act, a bill designed to give the US crypto industry clearer regulatory ground to stand on. With that dispute now resolved — at least on paper — attention shifts to the rest of the legislation.

Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView